拉斯维加斯房地产市场波动 ==>> 这是从“双底” ( DOUBLE BOTTOMS ) !!!
拉斯维加斯房地产市场波动 由哈勃史密斯 拉斯维加斯评论新闻报 发布时间：2011年6月3日|上午02时00分
房屋市场正在经历一个“鲶鱼恢复，”寻找未来的底部，然后才去空气注册下来了，市场分析师斯科特Sambucci旧金山的图斯研究星期四说。
这是从“双底”，由国家媒体与表演无非是住房价格的历史波动更多报道不同，Sambucci说，在40分钟的直播。
Altos Research Price Composite
SOURCE: Altos Research
该分析师表示，他“恭敬地不同意”由大卫布利策，在标准普尔Case - Shiller指数主席广泛视为衡量房价的坚持使用作了发言。布利策说，房价“继续至今仍不见缓解他们的恶性循环。”
在Case - Shiller指数所用的大部分数据是在三至六个月内“后视镜”Sambucci说。他看到一个实时价格季节性上扬，并且可能不会显示在案例希勒的，直到夏末或初秋指数上升，他说。
“鲶鱼恢复”是一个更好的市场描述，Sambucci说。
鲶鱼花时间沿着湖泊和河流的底部缓慢，飘浮从地方没有一个明确的方向向上和向下，他说。他们会游到水面吃，然后返回到水底。
“在过去的长期计划价格触底，上升了一点，沉回落，再次上升 - 这种模式我们与几年住房市场预期”，Sambucci说。 “房市复苏将需要相当长的时间，它会慢慢发生。”
可数字显示，在市场走强迹象，就像三月和四月的数字。价格上升的图斯跟踪研究，除了纽约，拉斯维加斯，这一切只经历了温和跌幅20个城市。
该公司发现有一个一十四万零五百九十八美元平均房价拉斯维加斯，在5月下降了百分之0.76，比前一个月上下在过去三个月百分之1.92。
中新图斯的大城市中也显示出综合全国市场的走强迹象。这个综合考察了全国小大都市统计区候补柜台设置在较大的，主要是沿海的Case - Shiller指数城市出现的波动。
“波动就是我们所说的鲶鱼恢复的，”Sambucci说。 “看着就像其他资产的住房。你不会得到一，二，三，五，10年或15年的增长。你会发现，得到波动和拐点是有机会赚钱。”
说这些谁强劲的就业增长都需要加强住房的思维落后，奎因埃丁斯说，研究总监设在纽约的RadarLogic。
在住房市场繁荣期间创造的就业机会大量消失，当市场崩溃和建设者停止建设新的家园。从停建房产销售竞争正不断接近历史低点，房屋开工。
问题是，已经在赎或家园的道路上巨大的供应，埃丁斯说。
“它可能采取的苦恼房屋库存被吸收和价格稳定，在那里新建筑被认为是一个值得努力一点来，”他说。 “因此，创造就业机会的持续强劲将不会出现在建造业，直到供应过剩的房屋被吸收，并在住宅建设持续，稳健地恢复。即便如此，并不是所有的建设的伟大经济衰退中失去工作会回报。“
而不是就业增长的手表，手表的住房市场何时真正衡量触底的银行，埃丁斯说。他们知道了库存过剩的深度，因为他们拥有它。
银行认识到，当前动态显示在价值进一步下降，都要求首付较大。当银行开始贷款的百分之85的贷款成数，而不是百分之70或75姊，将是一个好兆头，他们要么感到舒服，他们的市场或将已经找到了一种新的方式来管理风险。
Sambucci说，他看到越来越多的高端家庭通过房地产拥有的库存，这是一个好兆头举措。
新上市的定价春季以来一直在加速和被吸收的上市价格也迅速走高，另一种为市场的良好迹象，他说。
“通常你假设价格将朝着春天到了，这是四年来第一次，我们已经看到这种趋势，”他说。 “这个数据是不落后的数据捕获指数在那里。”
Las Vegas housing market fluctuating
BY HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Posted: Jun. 3, 2011 | 2:00 a.m.
The housing market is going through a "catfish recovery," finding the bottom and then coming up for air before going down again, market analyst Scott Sambucci of San Francisco-based Altos Research said Thursday.
It's different from the "double dip" reported by the national media and shows nothing more than the historical volatility of housing prices, Sambucci said during a 40-minute webcast.
The analyst said he "respectfully disagrees" with statements made by David Blitzer, chairman of the Standard & Poor Case-Shiller Index widely used as a measuring stick for home prices. Blitzer said home prices "continued their downward spiral with no relief in sight."
Most of the data used in the Case-Shiller index is three to six months in the "rearview mirror," Sambucci said. He's seeing a seasonal uptick in real-time prices that probably won't show up in Case-Shiller's index until late summer or early fall, he said.
The "catfish recovery" is a much better description of the market, Sambucci said.
Catfish spend their time moving slowly along the bottom of lakes and rivers, bobbing up and down from place to place without a clear direction, he said. They'll swim to the surface to eat and then return to the bottom.
"Plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again -- a pattern we expect with the housing market for several years," Sambucci said. "The housing recovery will take a long time and it is going to happen slowly."
May numbers are showing signs of strength in the market, as did March and April numbers. Prices are rising in all 20 cities tracked by Altos Research except New York and Las Vegas, which experienced only moderate declines.
The firm showed Las Vegas with an average home price of $140,598 in May, a decrease of 0.76 percent from the previous month and down 1.92 percent over the last three months.
The new Altos Mid-Cities Composite is also showing signs of strength in markets across the country. This composite examines an alternate set of smaller metropolitan statistical areas across the country to counter the volatility seen in larger, mostly coastal cities in the Case-Shiller index.
"Volatility is what we're talking about in the catfish recovery," Sambucci said. "Watch housing just like other assets. You're not going to get one, two, three, five, 10 or 15 years of growth. You're going to get volatility and finding that inflection point is the opportunity to make money."
Those who say strong job gains are needed to bolster housing are thinking backward, said Quinn Eddins, director of research for New York-based RadarLogic.
The bulk of jobs created during the housing boom disappeared when the market collapsed and builders stopped building new homes. Competition from distressed property sales are keeping housing starts near historic lows.
The problem is the huge supply of homes already in foreclosure or on their way, Eddins said.
"It could take years for the inventory of distressed homes to be absorbed and for prices to stabilize to the point where new construction is deemed to be a worthwhile endeavor," he said. "As such, sustained and robust job creation will not occur in the construction sector until the excess supply of homes is absorbed and homebuilding resumes in a sustained and robust manner. And even then, not all of the construction jobs lost in the great recession will return."
Rather than watch for job growth, watch the banks for a real measure of when the housing market hits bottom, Eddins said. They know the depth of inventory overhang because they own most of it.
Banks recognize that current dynamics suggest further declines in value and are requiring larger down payments. When banks start lending 85 percent loan-to-value as opposed to 70 percent or 75 percent, that will be a good sign that they either feel comfortable with the market or they will have figured out a new way to manage the risk.
Sambucci said he's seeing more higher-end homes move through the real estate-owned inventory, which is a good sign.
Pricing of new listings has been accelerating rapidly since spring and the price of listings being absorbed also moved higher, another good sign for the market, he said.
"Typically you assume prices will move up in the spring and this is the first time in four years we've seen that trend," he said. "This data is not captured in lagging data indices out there."
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
Altos Research Price Composite
SOURCE: Altos Research
Find this article at:
http://www.lvrj.com/business/las-vegas-housing-market-fluctuating-123087408.html?ref=408
房屋市场正在经历一个“鲶鱼恢复，”寻找未来的底部，然后才去空气注册下来了，市场分析师斯科特Sambucci旧金山的图斯研究星期四说。
这是从“双底”，由国家媒体与表演无非是住房价格的历史波动更多报道不同，Sambucci说，在40分钟的直播。
Altos Research Price Composite
| MSA | May Price | 1-month change | 3-month change |
| Denver | $321,820 | 1.95% | 5.24% |
| Las Vegas | $140,598 | -0.76% | -1.92% |
| Los Angeles | $596,001 | 1.56% | 2.94% |
| Phoenix | $230,028 | 2.26% | 5.63% |
| Portland | $285,332 | 0.86% | 1.37% |
| Salt Lake City | $293,426 | 0.85% | 1.54% |
| San Diego | $595,105 | 1.19% | 3.04% |
| San Francisco | $648,018 | 3.33% | 8.36% |
| San Jose | $706,051 | 3.14% | 7.59% |
| Seattle | $335,425 | 0.69% | 1.08% |
该分析师表示，他“恭敬地不同意”由大卫布利策，在标准普尔Case - Shiller指数主席广泛视为衡量房价的坚持使用作了发言。布利策说，房价“继续至今仍不见缓解他们的恶性循环。”
在Case - Shiller指数所用的大部分数据是在三至六个月内“后视镜”Sambucci说。他看到一个实时价格季节性上扬，并且可能不会显示在案例希勒的，直到夏末或初秋指数上升，他说。
“鲶鱼恢复”是一个更好的市场描述，Sambucci说。
鲶鱼花时间沿着湖泊和河流的底部缓慢，飘浮从地方没有一个明确的方向向上和向下，他说。他们会游到水面吃，然后返回到水底。
“在过去的长期计划价格触底，上升了一点，沉回落，再次上升 - 这种模式我们与几年住房市场预期”，Sambucci说。 “房市复苏将需要相当长的时间，它会慢慢发生。”
可数字显示，在市场走强迹象，就像三月和四月的数字。价格上升的图斯跟踪研究，除了纽约，拉斯维加斯，这一切只经历了温和跌幅20个城市。
该公司发现有一个一十四万零五百九十八美元平均房价拉斯维加斯，在5月下降了百分之0.76，比前一个月上下在过去三个月百分之1.92。
中新图斯的大城市中也显示出综合全国市场的走强迹象。这个综合考察了全国小大都市统计区候补柜台设置在较大的，主要是沿海的Case - Shiller指数城市出现的波动。
“波动就是我们所说的鲶鱼恢复的，”Sambucci说。 “看着就像其他资产的住房。你不会得到一，二，三，五，10年或15年的增长。你会发现，得到波动和拐点是有机会赚钱。”
说这些谁强劲的就业增长都需要加强住房的思维落后，奎因埃丁斯说，研究总监设在纽约的RadarLogic。
在住房市场繁荣期间创造的就业机会大量消失，当市场崩溃和建设者停止建设新的家园。从停建房产销售竞争正不断接近历史低点，房屋开工。
问题是，已经在赎或家园的道路上巨大的供应，埃丁斯说。
“它可能采取的苦恼房屋库存被吸收和价格稳定，在那里新建筑被认为是一个值得努力一点来，”他说。 “因此，创造就业机会的持续强劲将不会出现在建造业，直到供应过剩的房屋被吸收，并在住宅建设持续，稳健地恢复。即便如此，并不是所有的建设的伟大经济衰退中失去工作会回报。“
而不是就业增长的手表，手表的住房市场何时真正衡量触底的银行，埃丁斯说。他们知道了库存过剩的深度，因为他们拥有它。
银行认识到，当前动态显示在价值进一步下降，都要求首付较大。当银行开始贷款的百分之85的贷款成数，而不是百分之70或75姊，将是一个好兆头，他们要么感到舒服，他们的市场或将已经找到了一种新的方式来管理风险。
Sambucci说，他看到越来越多的高端家庭通过房地产拥有的库存，这是一个好兆头举措。
新上市的定价春季以来一直在加速和被吸收的上市价格也迅速走高，另一种为市场的良好迹象，他说。
“通常你假设价格将朝着春天到了，这是四年来第一次，我们已经看到这种趋势，”他说。 “这个数据是不落后的数据捕获指数在那里。”
Las Vegas housing market fluctuating
BY HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Posted: Jun. 3, 2011 | 2:00 a.m.
The housing market is going through a "catfish recovery," finding the bottom and then coming up for air before going down again, market analyst Scott Sambucci of San Francisco-based Altos Research said Thursday.
It's different from the "double dip" reported by the national media and shows nothing more than the historical volatility of housing prices, Sambucci said during a 40-minute webcast.
The analyst said he "respectfully disagrees" with statements made by David Blitzer, chairman of the Standard & Poor Case-Shiller Index widely used as a measuring stick for home prices. Blitzer said home prices "continued their downward spiral with no relief in sight."
Most of the data used in the Case-Shiller index is three to six months in the "rearview mirror," Sambucci said. He's seeing a seasonal uptick in real-time prices that probably won't show up in Case-Shiller's index until late summer or early fall, he said.
The "catfish recovery" is a much better description of the market, Sambucci said.
Catfish spend their time moving slowly along the bottom of lakes and rivers, bobbing up and down from place to place without a clear direction, he said. They'll swim to the surface to eat and then return to the bottom.
"Plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again -- a pattern we expect with the housing market for several years," Sambucci said. "The housing recovery will take a long time and it is going to happen slowly."
May numbers are showing signs of strength in the market, as did March and April numbers. Prices are rising in all 20 cities tracked by Altos Research except New York and Las Vegas, which experienced only moderate declines.
The firm showed Las Vegas with an average home price of $140,598 in May, a decrease of 0.76 percent from the previous month and down 1.92 percent over the last three months.
The new Altos Mid-Cities Composite is also showing signs of strength in markets across the country. This composite examines an alternate set of smaller metropolitan statistical areas across the country to counter the volatility seen in larger, mostly coastal cities in the Case-Shiller index.
"Volatility is what we're talking about in the catfish recovery," Sambucci said. "Watch housing just like other assets. You're not going to get one, two, three, five, 10 or 15 years of growth. You're going to get volatility and finding that inflection point is the opportunity to make money."
Those who say strong job gains are needed to bolster housing are thinking backward, said Quinn Eddins, director of research for New York-based RadarLogic.
The bulk of jobs created during the housing boom disappeared when the market collapsed and builders stopped building new homes. Competition from distressed property sales are keeping housing starts near historic lows.
The problem is the huge supply of homes already in foreclosure or on their way, Eddins said.
"It could take years for the inventory of distressed homes to be absorbed and for prices to stabilize to the point where new construction is deemed to be a worthwhile endeavor," he said. "As such, sustained and robust job creation will not occur in the construction sector until the excess supply of homes is absorbed and homebuilding resumes in a sustained and robust manner. And even then, not all of the construction jobs lost in the great recession will return."
Rather than watch for job growth, watch the banks for a real measure of when the housing market hits bottom, Eddins said. They know the depth of inventory overhang because they own most of it.
Banks recognize that current dynamics suggest further declines in value and are requiring larger down payments. When banks start lending 85 percent loan-to-value as opposed to 70 percent or 75 percent, that will be a good sign that they either feel comfortable with the market or they will have figured out a new way to manage the risk.
Sambucci said he's seeing more higher-end homes move through the real estate-owned inventory, which is a good sign.
Pricing of new listings has been accelerating rapidly since spring and the price of listings being absorbed also moved higher, another good sign for the market, he said.
"Typically you assume prices will move up in the spring and this is the first time in four years we've seen that trend," he said. "This data is not captured in lagging data indices out there."
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
Altos Research Price Composite
| MSA | May Price | 1-month change | 3-month change |
| Denver | $321,820 | 1.95% | 5.24% |
| Las Vegas | $140,598 | -0.76% | -1.92% |
| Los Angeles | $596,001 | 1.56% | 2.94% |
| Phoenix | $230,028 | 2.26% | 5.63% |
| Portland | $285,332 | 0.86% | 1.37% |
| Salt Lake City | $293,426 | 0.85% | 1.54% |
| San Diego | $595,105 | 1.19% | 3.04% |
| San Francisco | $648,018 | 3.33% | 8.36% |
| San Jose | $706,051 | 3.14% | 7.59% |
| Seattle | $335,425 | 0.69% | 1.08% |
Find this article at:
http://www.lvrj.com/business/las-vegas-housing-market-fluctuating-123087408.html?ref=408
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