LAS VEGAS ECONOMY HAS FINALLY TURNED CORNER...........

Economists declared the Great Recession officially over two years ago, though it certainly hasn't felt that way in Las Vegas.

Now, an analyst from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas says we've seen the worst and predicts better times and job growth in 2012.

"Uncertainty remains, but it appears the Southern Nevada economy has turned the corner," Bob Potts, assistant director of the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, said Friday.

While unemployment remains elevated and foreclosures are a drag on the housing market, other sectors of the local economy have shown encouraging improvement in the past year, shifting the mood to slightly upbeat going forward, according to UNLV's Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators report released Friday.

The index climbed to 123.67 in December, up from 123.44 the previous month and up from 123.02 in December 2010. Strong gains in gaming revenue drove it upward, Potts said.

"As the national economy continues to gain strength, we can expect further improvement in our local economy," Potts said.

The Clark County Tourism Index posted solid growth in October, increasing by 7.26 percent from the previous month and by 6.25 percent from October 2010.

All three data series that make up the index are stronger than a year ago, Potts noted. Clark County gaming revenue rose 10.4 percent, to $836.5 million; passenger counts at McCarran International Airport rose 4.5 percent, to 3.74 million; and hotel occupancy rates rose by 2.4 points, to 90.1 percent.

"The tourism index now stands at its highest value since July 2008, which provides encouraging evidence that our tourist-based economy is coming out of recession," Potts said.

Convention attendance posted a 9.2 percent year-over-year increase, to 457,686 in October; visitor volume rose 2.7 percent, to 3.42 million; and taxable sales increased 9.3 percent, to $2.52 billion.

Jeremy Aguero, principal of the Applied Analysis business advisory firm, said the local economy is showing better health, and it is hoped that momentum will carry into 2012.

"There are still some clouds looming on the horizon, but overall, the signals are better," Aguero said . "It's easy to be lulled into a sense of comfort by comparisons to the lows in 2010, but in comparison to the 12 months before, Southern Nevada's economy is substantially better."

Visitor volume is the single-largest determinant of Southern Nevada's economic health, driving hotel occupancy, average daily room rates and gaming revenue, Aguero said. Beyond that, he looks at other economic fundamentals such as population growth, job growth and consumer spending. All have shown modest increases in 2011.

Aguero said most of his clients are doing better in their business, shifting from survival mode to exploring growth possibilities.

All three components of the Clark County Construction Index slipped over the past year, but the rate of decline in the index has slowed. Since October 2010, construction employment fell by 6.8 percent, commercial permits by 10 percent and residential permits by 44.7 percent.

There were 220 residential permits and 18 commercial permits pulled in October -- not much activity in an urban area as large as Clark County, Potts said. Until excess inventory of commercial space built during the real estate bubble is absorbed, Southern Nevada construction activity will remain low, he said.

Commercial building permit valuation, a volatile number from month to month, totaled $20.3 million in October, up 29.2 percent from a year ago.

While the recession may technically be over in terms of gross domestic product measurement, household economic conditions have not improved.

The Census Bureau reported median household income of $49,445 in 2010, a 2.3 percent drop from the previous year after adjusting for inflation.

More often than not in recent history, the end of a recession has not immediately led to rising income levels. In four of seven recessions since 1969, including the last one, median household income declined in the first full year after the recession.