美國樓市企穩跡象明顯 美聯儲對經濟謹慎樂觀

美國樓市企穩跡象明顯 美聯儲對經濟謹慎樂觀

有最新跡象顯示，美國住宅市場正在緩慢企穩。周三公佈的數據顯示，美國1月份二手房銷量增速創近兩年來之最，盡管如此該數據依然弱於市場預期。鑒於此，美聯儲對該國的經濟前景保持謹慎樂觀的態度。

　　房地産市場緩慢復甦

　　美國全國房地産經紀人協會22日公佈的報告顯示，1月份，美國舊房銷售量經季節調整按年率計算為457萬套，環比上升4.3%，比去年同期增加0.7%，增速創2010年5月以來之最，不過該數據依然弱於預期。與此同時，當月美國各類舊房銷售中間價為每套15.47萬美元，同比下降2%，市場上充斥的大量打折銷售止贖房産拖累了整體價格。上述數據顯示，目前美國樓市的整體格局是“價跌量增”。

　　自2006年初房地産市場泡沫破裂後，美國樓市一直處在調整中，近期出現回暖跡象。在美國房地産市場上，舊房銷售占整個樓市銷售量的90%以上。

　　面對房地産市場的不溫不火，美聯儲本周二公佈的上月貼現率會議紀要顯示，盡管官員們注意到美國部分地區的住房市場正顯示出增長跡象，但他們擔心該行業仍較為疲軟。美聯儲官員預計，盡管近期公佈的一些經濟數據有所改善，但未來幾個季度中美國經濟僅會小幅增長。

　　會議紀要顯示，美聯儲12個轄區中的10個建議將貼現率維持在0.75%不變。官員們還指出，消費者支出和零售額增長的情況令人振奮，但增長並不均衡。此外，一些部門的製造業也實現增長。

　　奧巴馬政府上周五發布的年度《總統經濟報告》中指出，盡管各種衝擊導致2011年美國經濟增速放緩，但政府預計國內經濟增長會有所反彈，經濟復甦動能會進一步得到加強。

　　美國需要更多工作崗位

　　最近幾月，美國失業率迅速下滑，1月份失業率為8.3%，創下三年低點。美國政府依然將就業視為重點關注領域之一。美國國務卿希拉莉·柯林頓本周二宣佈，美國國務院將設立首席經濟學家辦公室，推動“就業外交”，以此來促進美國企業出口和國內就業。她表示，美國需要更多工作崗位，美國每出口10億美元的貨物，就能支撐國內5000多個工作崗位；美國總統奧巴馬2010年提出的5年內出口翻番的目標有望提前達到。

　　明尼阿波利斯聯儲銀行本周則表示，美國的收入不均狀況已經發展到二戰以來最嚴重的程度。“美國收入最低的20%人口，跟美國人收入中值相比，在戰後從未如此糟糕。”該行周二發表的文章指出。

　　美國加州大學聖克魯茲分校經濟學家邁克爾·杜利認為，隨着2008年的金融動蕩逐漸煙消雲散，黨派紛爭使國會陷入對立，美國銀行業危機可能再次上演。雖然2010年通過的《多德-弗蘭克法案》和《消費者保護法案》覆蓋範圍廣泛，但具體執行力以及具體效果堪憂。他說，對金融業進行的改革非常複雜，有些地方甚至相互衝突。

　　由於美國住房數據對投資者信心提振效果甚微，美股周三收低，三大股指跌幅在0.2%至0.5%不等。歐元區財長通過第二輪希臘救助協議，周二美股道瓊斯指數近四年來首次突破13000點心理關口。不過，分析人士認為，短期內美股繼續上漲阻力較大。

Housing market sales rise 13 percent nationwide

WASHINGTON -- The housing market is flashing signs of health ahead of the spring-buying season.

Sales of previously occupied homes are at their highest level since May 2010. More first-time buyers are making purchases. And the supply of homes fell last month to its lowest point in nearly seven years, which could push home prices higher.

Sales have now risen nearly 13 percent over the past six months. While they are still well below the 6 million that economists equate with a healthy market, the gains have coincided with other changes in the market that suggest more sales are coming.

"The trend is clearly upward," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that resales increased 4.3 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.57 million.

Single-family home sales rose 3.8 percent. And the number of first-time buyers, who are critical to a housing recovery, increased slightly to make up 33 percent of all sales. That's still below 40 percent, which tends to signal a healthy market.

In Las Vegas, existing home closings topped 58,000 in 2011 and are off to a fast start with 4,434 in January, a 10.9 percent increase from the same month a year ago, SalesTraq research firm reported.

Resale inventory on the Multiple Listing Service decreased to 8,997 in January, compared with 10,540 in December. It's down 41 percent from a year ago.

One concern is the housing market is still saturated with homes at risk of foreclosure, which lower broader home prices. Those increased to make up 35 percent of sales nationwide and close to 75 percent in Las Vegas, including short sales, or homes sold for less than the principal mortgage balance.

Foreclosures continue unabated in Las Vegas. More than 100,000 homes have been lost in the past five years, and another 100,000 homes could easily go to foreclosure in the next few years, said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq.

Three out of four homes for sale are vacant, a symptom of a greater problem that has depressed home prices to their lowest level in 25 years. What will happen to the 250,000 homeowners who are underwater on their mortgage, owing more than their home is worth?

"For some time now, there has been a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over the skies of Las Vegas," Murphy said. "Where will it all end? When will it all end? The future is indeed uncertain, and not knowing what's going to happen can be worse than knowing, even if the news is bad. If we only knew the eventual outcome, we could at least settle down and begin to plan for it."

Nationwide, the supply of homes on the market has plunged to 2.3 million, the lowest level since March 2005. At last month's sales pace, it would take more than six months to clear those homes, consistent with a healthy housing market.

Las Vegas' supply is down to 2.8 months, Murphy noted.

Most economists said the January report was encouraging, especially when viewed with other recent positive housing data.

Mortgage rates have never been lower. Homebuilders are slightly more hopeful because more people are saying they might be open to buying this year -- and they responded in January to that interest by requesting more permits to construct single-family homes.

Much of the optimism has come because hiring has picked up. More jobs are critical to a housing rebound. In January, employers added 243,000 net jobs -- the most in nine months -- and the unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent, the lowest level in nearly three years.

Analysts caution that the damage from the housing bust is deep and the industry is years away from fully recovering. Since the bubble burst, sales have slumped under the weight of foreclosures, tighter credit and falling prices.