Analyst expects Las Vegas economy to pick up in 2013-14
Analyst expects Las Vegas economy to pick up in 2013-14
http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/may/30/analyst-expects-las-vegas-economy-pick-2013-14/
A prominent real estate economist said the housing market will weaken further but he expects the Las Vegas economy to “pick up steam in 2012” and really start to “take off” in 2013 and 2014.
“The drivers, being domestic tourism and international tourism, aren’t going to kick in until next year because there’s still a lack of confidence,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director of research for brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap. “Once it catches on, and we get demand to come back, the next phase of growth will catch on probably in 2013 and 2014.”
Nadji, who made his comments while in Las Vegas for the International Council of Shopping Centers Convention, said the rest of 2011 will remain as it is now because jobs, especially in construction, aren’t being created. That’s one reason why Las Vegas’ recovery has lagged the rest of the nation, he said.
“There’s no driver for big job numbers,” Nadji said. “Between now and then, it will be a respectable but unspectacular recovery. It is still a gradual recovery because we are adding jobs.”
During a conference the firm held May 23 to discuss retail trends, Nadji said that although the U.S. economy continues its recovery, it won’t be driven by the housing market, which will remain a drag on the economy. He also warned that the upswing in retail sales isn’t sustainable unless wages increase.
While the nation’s economy is slowly healing, there will be a drag on that growth in the future, Nadji said. Consumer debt is at record levels and the high federal government debt will rob some of the momentum from the economic growth because of the need for higher taxes and lower spending to deal with it, Nadji said.
Energy prices are the reason the GDP fell from 3.1 percent to 1.8 percent in the first quarter, Nadji said. Every penny increase in gasoline prices robs $1 billion in spending power in the U.S. economy, he said.
The nation is on pace to create 2.3 million jobs in 2011 and 2.7 million in 2012. The nation has added more than 500,000 professional business jobs in the last 12 months, Nadji said.
As for retail sales nationwide, Nadji said they turned positive in mid-2010 and have now exceeded the peak spending in 2007 before the recession hit.
The concern is that retail sales are defying the growth in wages and aren’t sustainable. The growth is due to pent-up demand and is led by the top 20 percent of income earners whose wealth has increased. That group makes up 38 percent of spending, he said.
http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2011/may/30/analyst-expects-las-vegas-economy-pick-2013-14/
A prominent real estate economist said the housing market will weaken further but he expects the Las Vegas economy to “pick up steam in 2012” and really start to “take off” in 2013 and 2014.
“The drivers, being domestic tourism and international tourism, aren’t going to kick in until next year because there’s still a lack of confidence,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director of research for brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap. “Once it catches on, and we get demand to come back, the next phase of growth will catch on probably in 2013 and 2014.”
Nadji, who made his comments while in Las Vegas for the International Council of Shopping Centers Convention, said the rest of 2011 will remain as it is now because jobs, especially in construction, aren’t being created. That’s one reason why Las Vegas’ recovery has lagged the rest of the nation, he said.
“There’s no driver for big job numbers,” Nadji said. “Between now and then, it will be a respectable but unspectacular recovery. It is still a gradual recovery because we are adding jobs.”
During a conference the firm held May 23 to discuss retail trends, Nadji said that although the U.S. economy continues its recovery, it won’t be driven by the housing market, which will remain a drag on the economy. He also warned that the upswing in retail sales isn’t sustainable unless wages increase.
While the nation’s economy is slowly healing, there will be a drag on that growth in the future, Nadji said. Consumer debt is at record levels and the high federal government debt will rob some of the momentum from the economic growth because of the need for higher taxes and lower spending to deal with it, Nadji said.
Energy prices are the reason the GDP fell from 3.1 percent to 1.8 percent in the first quarter, Nadji said. Every penny increase in gasoline prices robs $1 billion in spending power in the U.S. economy, he said.
The nation is on pace to create 2.3 million jobs in 2011 and 2.7 million in 2012. The nation has added more than 500,000 professional business jobs in the last 12 months, Nadji said.
As for retail sales nationwide, Nadji said they turned positive in mid-2010 and have now exceeded the peak spending in 2007 before the recession hit.
The concern is that retail sales are defying the growth in wages and aren’t sustainable. The growth is due to pent-up demand and is led by the top 20 percent of income earners whose wealth has increased. That group makes up 38 percent of spending, he said.
