拉斯维加斯住宅销售复苏？
Monday, May 21, 2012Residential revival?
Harmony Homes President Robb Beville never had a problem finding framers until the last few months. Now it takes 15 days to frame a house, instead of the usual five, because of the wait.
Hard to believe, but homebuilders are running into an unexpected labor shortage in Las Vegas, where new-home construction is making a comeback from its lowest level on record.
"They just don't have the crews," Beville said at Harmony's Canyon Falls community in the southwest valley. "That's the majority of the delays."
Builders have seen a steady uptick in new-home sales, permits and median prices since the beginning of the year, though some observers say it's an artificial blip created by Assembly Bill 284, the robo-signing law that took effect in October.
The law requires lenders to provide an affidavit of authority to foreclose before they file a notice of default. Since October, notices of default, the first step in foreclosures, have plummeted from roughly 4,000 a month to a few hundred a month. That means fewer foreclosures coming to market.
At the same time, inventory of single-family homes available for sale without a contingent or pending offer dwindled to 4,182 in April, roughly a five-week supply, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.
Housing analyst Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research said buyers are shifting from the resale market to the new-home segment. Lender transgressions have resulted in a dramatic turnaround for homebuilders, at least temporarily, he said.
"If Marcus Conklin (author of AB284) had planned it this way, homebuilders would say he's a genius," Smith said. "We are seeing some tremendous demand relative to the last three years."
Smith recently revised his projection for annual new-home sales upward to 5,000, after projecting about 4,000 at the beginning of the year. First-quarter sales are up 14.6 percent from a year ago at 873, Smith reported.
New-home sales had fallen to 3,894 in 2011, about one-tenth of the 38,955 sold in 2005. By 2009, the number had dropped to 5,271, and continued to decline for the past two years.
Richmond American Homes made the biggest gain in the first quarter, closing on 171 homes, compared with 93 a year earlier. Other builders with substantial first-quarter gains include Lennar Homes (148 versus 82); DR Horton (133 versus 95); and Harmony (120 versus 64).
Those sales were made months ago, Smith noted. A better "real time" indicator of the market is traffic through new-home models and net sales per week in new subdivisions. Sales have been running 0.8 to 0.9 a week for the last three weeks, up from 0.3 earlier in the year.
"What's really encouraging is we have fewer communities and we're still exceeding sales," KB Home Nevada President Rob McGibney said. "I can tell you at this point, it's a whole lot better from a homebuilder's perspective than last year.
"It's a couple of things. Homebuyers who are going to live in the house and want a piece of the American dream, they're starting to see the value of a new home. It's a hassle for them to buy a short sale or foreclosure," he said. "We talk to a lot of Realtors and the feedback we're getting is there's not a lot out there. It's really been picked over."
McGibney said the sales increase is coming from "organic growth," which is different than the bump homebuilders saw from the federal homebuyer tax credit in 2010.
There's still talk about the "shadow inventory" of real estate-owned, or bank-owned, homes yet to be released on the market, and that's something McGibney said he'll be watching.
In the meantime, McGibney said, KB Home is pulling permits and searching for land to feed the business. Las Vegas remains a land-constrained market, so it's difficult to find land, especially in "A" locations, he said.
Home Builders Research counted 514 new-home permits in March, double the number from January and February. Smith said he expects to see building permits continue to improve into the summer. Builders saw their standing inventory of unsold homes drop from about 450 at the end of last year to slightly more than 200 in April.
Demand is so strong in some communities that investors are buying new homes "from dirt," yet to start construction, paying cash and not receiving a typical cash discount, Smith said. He last saw that during the boom years.
"You have some builders that are already seeing price increases," he said. "I think at this point in the game, it's important to watch price change by month. This market changes quickly."
KB has been able to raise prices in just about every community and significantly in some cases, McGibney said. KB offers townhomes at Inspirada in Henderson starting from about $85 a square foot, and will open its second village in June with detached garden-style homes starting around $170,000 for 2,280 square feet.
Median home prices in other cities hit hard by the housing crash, such as Miami and Phoenix, have increased 16 percent month over month. The median price of a new home in Las Vegas was $201,040 in March, up 3.7 percent from $193,900 in February, Home Builders Research reports.
Frank Nason of Residential Resources reported that the median resale price per square foot has increased for the last two months, along with the size of homes being purchased.
"All of the numbers seem to be going in the right direction," he said. "Listing prices are increasing, but part of that is the percentage of REOs (real estate-owned homes) and short sales in our inventory has gone down. Normal listings have increased, and that's pushing prices."
McGibney said he's seeing demand for larger homes. KB increased its average home size by 10 percent, from 1,800 square feet to about 2,000 square feet, he said.
Beville of Harmony Homes said the company is on pace to double last year's sales of 230 homes. The majority of those sales are under $160,000, he said. Harmony has homes starting at $120,000 at Parkside at Centennial Springs in the northwest. Price points are a little higher at Canyon Falls, a gated community with lot sizes of up to 20,000 square feet and homes starting in the $400,000s.
"This house in the heyday is three times the price," Beville said inside a single-story, 3,700-square-foot model. "It's different than what people are used to seeing. It has a lot of pizzazz, an open living room, very spacious."
Qualifying for financing has been an obstacle for many homebuyers. Even though interest rates are at historic lows, lending standards have tightened in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis.
Beville said he had a buyer with two short sales, or homes sold for less than the principal mortgage balance, on their credit record.
"Their time has elapsed and they're back buying again and that's fantastic for us," he said. "You don't have to make a lot of money to have a $400,000 house. Look at what you were getting for $400,000 in 2005."
Along with a labor shortage, Beville said the homebuilding industry is experiencing a run-up on housing starts and increased competition for residential lots. There is a handful of builders picking up the lion's share of the market, and Harmony is the only private builder among them, he said.
Housing analyst Smith said no one can predict with full certainty what the Las Vegas housing market will look like a year from now. All he knows is that the robo-signing law has put more time on the clock for recovery.
"Prior to AB284, there were no economists, market analysts, Realtors, homebuilders or any politicians who anticipated there would be such a drastic change in the inventory of existing homes," Smith said.
"So here we are, watching one piece of legislation in Nevada that has put an end to robo-signing the foreclosure documents, and in effect, changing the market by basically halting the notice of defaults that predicate a foreclosure. It's ironic, to say the least," he said.
==================================================================
Since start of year, new-home sales, median prices and permits have risen
Harmony Homes President Robb Beville never had a problem finding framers until the last few months. Now it takes 15 days to frame a house, instead of the usual five, because of the wait.
Hard to believe, but homebuilders are running into an unexpected labor shortage in Las Vegas, where new-home construction is making a comeback from its lowest level on record.
"They just don't have the crews," Beville said at Harmony's Canyon Falls community in the southwest valley. "That's the majority of the delays."
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The law requires lenders to provide an affidavit of authority to foreclose before they file a notice of default. Since October, notices of default, the first step in foreclosures, have plummeted from roughly 4,000 a month to a few hundred a month. That means fewer foreclosures coming to market.
At the same time, inventory of single-family homes available for sale without a contingent or pending offer dwindled to 4,182 in April, roughly a five-week supply, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.
Housing analyst Dennis Smith of Home Builders Research said buyers are shifting from the resale market to the new-home segment. Lender transgressions have resulted in a dramatic turnaround for homebuilders, at least temporarily, he said.
"If Marcus Conklin (author of AB284) had planned it this way, homebuilders would say he's a genius," Smith said. "We are seeing some tremendous demand relative to the last three years."
Smith recently revised his projection for annual new-home sales upward to 5,000, after projecting about 4,000 at the beginning of the year. First-quarter sales are up 14.6 percent from a year ago at 873, Smith reported.
New-home sales had fallen to 3,894 in 2011, about one-tenth of the 38,955 sold in 2005. By 2009, the number had dropped to 5,271, and continued to decline for the past two years.
Richmond American Homes made the biggest gain in the first quarter, closing on 171 homes, compared with 93 a year earlier. Other builders with substantial first-quarter gains include Lennar Homes (148 versus 82); DR Horton (133 versus 95); and Harmony (120 versus 64).
Those sales were made months ago, Smith noted. A better "real time" indicator of the market is traffic through new-home models and net sales per week in new subdivisions. Sales have been running 0.8 to 0.9 a week for the last three weeks, up from 0.3 earlier in the year.
"What's really encouraging is we have fewer communities and we're still exceeding sales," KB Home Nevada President Rob McGibney said. "I can tell you at this point, it's a whole lot better from a homebuilder's perspective than last year.
"It's a couple of things. Homebuyers who are going to live in the house and want a piece of the American dream, they're starting to see the value of a new home. It's a hassle for them to buy a short sale or foreclosure," he said. "We talk to a lot of Realtors and the feedback we're getting is there's not a lot out there. It's really been picked over."
McGibney said the sales increase is coming from "organic growth," which is different than the bump homebuilders saw from the federal homebuyer tax credit in 2010.
There's still talk about the "shadow inventory" of real estate-owned, or bank-owned, homes yet to be released on the market, and that's something McGibney said he'll be watching.
In the meantime, McGibney said, KB Home is pulling permits and searching for land to feed the business. Las Vegas remains a land-constrained market, so it's difficult to find land, especially in "A" locations, he said.
Home Builders Research counted 514 new-home permits in March, double the number from January and February. Smith said he expects to see building permits continue to improve into the summer. Builders saw their standing inventory of unsold homes drop from about 450 at the end of last year to slightly more than 200 in April.
Demand is so strong in some communities that investors are buying new homes "from dirt," yet to start construction, paying cash and not receiving a typical cash discount, Smith said. He last saw that during the boom years.
"You have some builders that are already seeing price increases," he said. "I think at this point in the game, it's important to watch price change by month. This market changes quickly."
KB has been able to raise prices in just about every community and significantly in some cases, McGibney said. KB offers townhomes at Inspirada in Henderson starting from about $85 a square foot, and will open its second village in June with detached garden-style homes starting around $170,000 for 2,280 square feet.
Median home prices in other cities hit hard by the housing crash, such as Miami and Phoenix, have increased 16 percent month over month. The median price of a new home in Las Vegas was $201,040 in March, up 3.7 percent from $193,900 in February, Home Builders Research reports.
Frank Nason of Residential Resources reported that the median resale price per square foot has increased for the last two months, along with the size of homes being purchased.
"All of the numbers seem to be going in the right direction," he said. "Listing prices are increasing, but part of that is the percentage of REOs (real estate-owned homes) and short sales in our inventory has gone down. Normal listings have increased, and that's pushing prices."
McGibney said he's seeing demand for larger homes. KB increased its average home size by 10 percent, from 1,800 square feet to about 2,000 square feet, he said.
Beville of Harmony Homes said the company is on pace to double last year's sales of 230 homes. The majority of those sales are under $160,000, he said. Harmony has homes starting at $120,000 at Parkside at Centennial Springs in the northwest. Price points are a little higher at Canyon Falls, a gated community with lot sizes of up to 20,000 square feet and homes starting in the $400,000s.
"This house in the heyday is three times the price," Beville said inside a single-story, 3,700-square-foot model. "It's different than what people are used to seeing. It has a lot of pizzazz, an open living room, very spacious."
Qualifying for financing has been an obstacle for many homebuyers. Even though interest rates are at historic lows, lending standards have tightened in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis.
Beville said he had a buyer with two short sales, or homes sold for less than the principal mortgage balance, on their credit record.
"Their time has elapsed and they're back buying again and that's fantastic for us," he said. "You don't have to make a lot of money to have a $400,000 house. Look at what you were getting for $400,000 in 2005."
Along with a labor shortage, Beville said the homebuilding industry is experiencing a run-up on housing starts and increased competition for residential lots. There is a handful of builders picking up the lion's share of the market, and Harmony is the only private builder among them, he said.
Housing analyst Smith said no one can predict with full certainty what the Las Vegas housing market will look like a year from now. All he knows is that the robo-signing law has put more time on the clock for recovery.
"Prior to AB284, there were no economists, market analysts, Realtors, homebuilders or any politicians who anticipated there would be such a drastic change in the inventory of existing homes," Smith said.
"So here we are, watching one piece of legislation in Nevada that has put an end to robo-signing the foreclosure documents, and in effect, changing the market by basically halting the notice of defaults that predicate a foreclosure. It's ironic, to say the least," he said.
==================================================================
拉斯维加斯住宅销售复苏？
自年初以来，新屋销售、 中等价格和许可证上涨
由哈勃史密斯
和谐家园主席 Robb 贝维从来没有问题，直到最近几个月发现制定者。现在需 15 天框架一栋房子，而不是通常的五个，因为等待。
令人难以置信，但商正在运行到拉斯维加斯、 新家建设也从其最低纪录正在恢复意外的劳动力短缺的局面。
贝维西南流域和谐的峡谷瀑布社区在说，"他们只是没有船员，"。"这是拖延的大多数"。
马丁 · 富恩特斯 |拉斯维加斯业务新闻
在山的边缘和谐家园发展的建筑地盘。
马丁 · 富恩特斯 |拉斯维加斯业务新闻
家在建的 Ryland 家在山的边缘显示。
马丁 · 富恩特斯 |拉斯维加斯业务新闻
Ryland 家园标志显示在山的边缘
马丁 · 富恩特斯 |拉斯维加斯业务新闻
家在建的 Ryland 家在山的边缘显示。
马丁 · 富恩特斯 |拉斯维加斯业务新闻
和谐家园主席罗伯特 · 贝维给家庭的模型的旅游 5 月 9 日在美国拉斯维加斯的峡谷瀑布门控社区。他表示，公司去年的销售 230 安老院的一倍的步伐。这些销售多数下 160,000 美元，他说。
虽然一些观察人士表示，它是人工的 blip robo 签署，10 月生效的法律条例草案 284 大会，由创建建设者已经看到，今年年初以来的新屋销售许可证中, 位数价格稳步上升。
法律要求贷款人提供他们的文件的默认通知之前，取消抵押品赎回权的权威的誓章。10 月以来默认情况下，丧失抵押品赎回权，第一步的通告暴跌由大约一个月 4000 到数百元一个月。这意味着更少的丧失抵押品赎回权市场。
同时，单户住宅销售无特遣队或挂起的报价库存减少到 4,182 4 月，大约五周供应，根据房地产经纪人更大拉斯维加斯协会。
房屋分析师回家建设者研究的丹尼斯 · 史密斯说： 买家从转售市场转移到新家段。他说，贷款人的过犯已导致戏剧性的反弹为商，至少暂时。
史密斯说，"是否马库斯 · 康克林 （作者的 AB284） 曾计划通过这种方式，商会说他是一个天才，"。"我们都看到一些巨大的需求，相对于过去三年"。
史密斯最近修订他向上至 5000，每年新屋销售后投射在今年年初的约 4,000 的投影。第一季度销售增长了 14.6%从一年前在 873，史密斯报告。
新屋销售下降 3,894 在 2011 年，在 2005 年出售的 38,955 的十分之一左右。2009 年，下降至 5,271，及继续过去两年里减少了人数。
里士满美国安老院在第一季，取得最大涨幅关闭 171 家，相比去年同期的 93。其他建筑商大量第一季度收益包括莱纳尔家园 (148 与 82) ；博士霍顿 (133 与 95） ；与和谐 (120 为 64）。
这些销售进行了几个月前，史密斯指出。一种更好"实时"指标是市场的通过新家模型和净销售额每周在新的细分的交通。销售达到 0.8-0.9 最后的三个星期，每周最多从 0.3 早在一年中。
KB 首页内华达州主席 Rob McGibney 说，"什么是真正的鼓励是我们有更少的社区和我们现在仍然超过销售，"。"我可以告诉你在这一点上，它是从加仓角度比去年好很多。
"这是几件事情。购房者要去住的房子和想要一块美国的梦想，他们开始看到了一个新家的价值。这是他们买的卖空或丧失抵押品赎回权的麻烦，"他说。"我们跟很多的房地产经纪人，我们得到的反馈是不是有很多。它是真的一直拿。"
McGibney 说，销售增长来自"有机增长"这是不同的比 2010 年凹凸商看到了从联邦税收减免。
仍然是房地产国有或国有银行的安老院，还将公布在市场上的"影子库存"谈，即 McGibney 说，他就会看的东西。
同时，McGibney 说，KB 首页是拉许可证，寻找饲料业务的土地。拉斯维加斯仍然土地约束的市场，所以很难找到土地，尤其是在"A"的位置，他说。
计算 514 新家的家庭建设者研究允许 3 月，从一月和二月两倍。史密斯说，他预计继续改善到夏天的营建许可。建设者看见他们站立库存房屋存量从约 450 落在去年年底，到略多
