美元似乎将逐步走高，所以现在是一个很好的时间来买 (VEGAS-拉斯维加斯) 房地产！！
THE DOLLAR INDEX MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BOTTOMING -- INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS RESULTING FROM A STRONGER DOLLAR INCLUDE WEAKER COMMODITY PRICES -- A FIRMER DOLLAR MAKES U.S. STOCKS MORE ATTRACTIVE -- STOCKS HAVE OVERTAKEN COMMODITIES AS STRONGER ASSET CLASS -- BRITISH POUND ATTRACTS EUROPEAN FUNDS
产！！
FIRMER DOLLAR HURTS COMMODITIES... One of the most consistent intermarket links is the inverse relationship between the dollar and commodity prices. Chart 2 shows that the collapse in the Dollar Index during 2002 coincided with a major upturn in the CRB Index(solid area). Since 2008, however, a firmer dollar has depressed commodity prices. The two CRB peaks during 2008 and 2011 coincided with dollar bottoms (see arrows). Commodities have established a pattern of "lower highs" between 2008 and 2011 (see trendline). And that's during a period when the Dollar Index has been trending sideways. Imagine what impact a dollar uptrend would have on commodity assets.
RISING DOLLAR FAVORS US STOCKS... Chart 3 demonstrates how dollar direction influences the relationship between U.S. and foreign stocks. The blue line is a "ratio" of the MS World Stock Index - ex USA divided by the S&P 500. The direction of the blue ratio line tells us whether U.S. or foreign stocks are doing better. Notice that the blue line trends in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar Index. The foreign/S&P stock ratio turned up during 2002 when the dollar peaked and continued rising until 2008. The peak in the foreign/ US stock ratio coincided with the dollar bottom. The falling ratio since 2008 shows that foreign stocks have done a lot worse than those in the U.S. over the last four years. The firmer dollar has had a lot to do with that. If the dollar is in fact bottoming, that would suggest that U.S. stocks will be a better place to be than foreign stocks.
CRB TESTS 2011 LOWS... Chart 4 shows the CRB Index in the process of retesting its 2011 lows after falling sharply since March. That's very important test for the asset class. A drop below 2011 lows would weaken the chart picture even further. That might also have a negative impact on stocks because both markets have shown a tendency to rise and fall together since 2008. The falling Correlation Coefficient (below chart) shows that their corrrelation has weakened over the last two months. I can't help but wonder, however, if commodity weakness is starting to weigh on stock prices. Both are barometers of global economic strength. Having said that, I think a case can be made that stocks are in a much better position than commodities which would reverse the trend of the past decade. That will be especially true if the dollar continues to strengthen.
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