股市即將大跌，富國銀行的策略師警告 = Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo strategist warns
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/101049191
Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo strategist warns
By: Alex Rosenberg | CNBC Producer
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Top Wells Fargo strategist: The S&P is going to 1440
Thursday, 19 Sep 2013 | 1:07 PM ET
Gina Martin Adams of Wells Fargo explains why the market will drop 16 percent by the end of the year, with CNBC's Bertha Coombs and the Futures Now Traders.
Gina Martin Adams is sticking to her guns.
The Wells Fargo strategist has been bearish on stocks all year, even as she watched the S&P 500 add 21 percent. And on Thursday's "Futures Now," Adams reiterated her call that the index would close out the year at 1,440.
"Our target is based on fundamentals," Adams insisted. "We're basing our target on typical valuation measures, given the level of interest rates and also on earnings forecasts. And that's why our target is relatively low."
In fact, "low" is somewhat of an understatement. Adams' target implies that the market will drop 16 percent in little more than three months, erasing everything that stocks gained after the year's first day of trading. This makes her one of the lone bears on the Street.
So what could produce such a dismal fourth quarter for stocks?
First of all, Adams is highly skeptical about the rally that the market has enjoyed thus far.
"It's all about emotion at this point. The entirety of the S&P 500's increase this year has come via the multiple," Adams said. "It's been simply through the amount that investors are willing to bid up the value of the future earnings stream."
Indeed, the S&P 500's price-earnings multiple has risen from 17 on Jan. 1 to nearly 20. That means the market has largely been rising due to investors' willingness to pay more for those earnings.
(Read more: Robert Shiller to bulls: 'Don't expect miracles')
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Adams goes on to argue that the recent rise in Treasury yields could put an end to this inclination.
"The multiple is one of the most valuable components" of the rally, and "typical drivers of the multiple are interest rates." So despite the fact that yields have cooled off recently, "simply the fact that we moved from 1.6 [percent] on the 10-year Treasury rate to now the 2.7 [percent] range is a potential tremendous shock over the next six months," Adams contended.
Adams believes that stocks haven't yet digested the rate rally. "Stocks tend to follow rates over time," she said. "Typically, when you get a 100 basis point [or 1 percent] move in Treasury rates, you get a contraction on the P/E multiple on stocks of about a full turn. That, by itself, implies you get something of a 10-percent-plus correction in stocks."
And while the Fed's decision that it wouldn't slow its rate of asset purchases has driven the market to yet another all-time high this week, Adams doesn't believe the surprising announcement will ultimately make a difference.
"Unless bonds can actually rally substantially with the so-called Fed bid, and the Fed is able to manipulate yields significantly lower, the damage has been done, and I think the cat is quite frankly out of the bag."
(Read more: Fed's taper surprise puts jumpy market in limbo)
Couple the rise in rates with slow earnings growth, and Adams believes the market is in for a very tricky fall.
"We're going to have to face the music come October," she said.
—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg. Follow him on Twitter: @CNBCAlex.
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（中央社台北21日電）美股收黑，標準普爾500指數和道瓊工業指數雙雙寫下8月來最大跌幅，主要因美國聯邦準備理事會（Fed）刺激措施減碼疑慮，以及攸關政府支出的政治角力對今年經濟成長構成威脅。
標準普爾500指數收盤挫12.43點或0.72%，報1709.91點，創8月27日以來最大跌幅。道瓊工業指數收盤重摔185.46點，或1.19%，報15451.09點，創8月15日以來最大跌幅。這兩項指數在18日攀抵歷史高點後，連挫2天。
以科技股為主的那斯達克指數收盤挫14.656點或0.39%，報3774.728點。費城半導體指數收盤跌2.941點，或0.59%，報493.145點。
USAA Investments操盤手克凡塔斯（John Kvantas）指出，「市場可能對聯準會的行動感到困惑。」「也許聯準會試圖釋出訊息，也就是沒錯，我們沒減碼，但這不代表我們永遠不會減碼量化寬鬆，或許其實還是會很快減碼量化寬鬆。」
美股成交量約89億股，創6月28日以來最大。
威士卡（VISA Inc）、高盛集團（Goldman SachsGroup）、耐吉（Nike）納入道瓊工業指數。標普則加入Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.和阿美特克（AmetekInc.），指數異動將從收盤後自動生效。
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聯準會從2008年12月起一直把主要利率壓在逼近零，並透過3輪刺激措施把資產負債表規模推上空前的3.66兆美元，促使標普500指數自2009年3月以來飆漲155%。
根據一項針對41位經濟師的調查，其中24位預估，聯準會將在12月減碼資產收購計劃。
聖路易聯邦準備銀行布勒德（James Bullard）表示，決議不減碼是驚險通過的決定， 下月不無可能小幅減碼。聯準會將在10月29-30日集會。
堪薩斯聯邦準備銀行總裁喬治（Esther George）在曼哈頓政策研究中心（Manhattan Institute forPolicy）表示，聯準會決定維持購債步伐，製造混亂，製造不連貫。喬治是會中唯一投下反對票的理事。
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聯準會維持購債步伐不變，促使巴克萊集團（Barclays Plc）上修標準普爾500指數預估至1800點，在華爾街分析師中最高。
全球軟體巨擘微軟（Microsoft）收挫2.5%，報32.79美元，奇異（General Electric）收跌1.8%，報24.01美元，領跌大型股。
開拓重工（Caterpillar）在宣佈全球零售機械銷售連9個月下滑後，股價收3.4%，跌幅居道瓊工業指數之冠，來到84.75美元。
黑莓公司（BlackBerry）收盤重挫17%，報 8.73美元，創6月以來最大跌幅。黑莓宣布將裁員4500人，庫存減記金額高達9.6億美元，主要因新機未能擄獲消費者歡心。
AK鋼鐵控股公司（AK Steel Holding Corp.）重挫8%，報4.09美元。這家鋼鐵業者預測，第3季虧損將達每股22美分至27美分，包含和俄亥俄州密德城（Middletown）停爐相關的9美分虧損。（譯者：中央社劉淑琴）1020921
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